The Complete Scorecard
This page synthesises every comparison on the platform into a single multi-metric scorecard. Each indicator is assessed independently. The winner per metric is declared based on data, not aspiration. Where Bahrain holds a genuine advantage, it is acknowledged. Where Abu Dhabi’s scale dominates, that dominance is recorded.
The scorecard is not a value judgement on either economy. It is an empirical assessment of comparative position across the dimensions that matter for Vision 2030 delivery.
Macroeconomic Indicators
| Indicator | Abu Dhabi | Bahrain | Advantage |
|---|
| Nominal GDP | ~$300B | ~$44B | Abu Dhabi |
| GDP Per Capita | ~$80,000 | ~$29,000 | Abu Dhabi |
| Real GDP Growth Rate | ~3.5% | ~3.1% | Abu Dhabi (marginal) |
| Non-Oil GDP Share | ~50% | ~82% | Bahrain (by necessity) |
| Non-Oil GDP (absolute) | ~$150B | ~$36B | Abu Dhabi |
| Population | ~3.8M | ~1.5M | Abu Dhabi (larger domestic market) |
Energy & Resources
| Indicator | Abu Dhabi | Bahrain | Advantage |
|---|
| Oil Production | ~4M bpd | ~40,000 bpd | Abu Dhabi |
| Proven Oil Reserves | ~98B barrels | ~125M barrels | Abu Dhabi |
| Reserve Life | ~67 years | ~8-9 years | Abu Dhabi |
| NOC Scale (ADNOC vs BAPCO) | $150B+ revenue | Refinery operations | Abu Dhabi |
| Clean Energy (Masdar) | Global portfolio, 100 GW target | Early-stage | Abu Dhabi |
| Nuclear Energy | Barakah (5.6 GW, operational) | None | Abu Dhabi |
Fiscal & Sovereign Wealth
| Indicator | Abu Dhabi | Bahrain | Advantage |
|---|
| Total Sovereign Wealth | $1.5T+ | ~$18B | Abu Dhabi |
| Credit Rating | AA / Aa2 | B+ / B2 | Abu Dhabi |
| Fiscal Balance | Near-zero or surplus | Persistent deficit | Abu Dhabi |
| Fiscal Breakeven Oil Price | ~$60/bbl | ~$90-100/bbl | Abu Dhabi |
| Debt-to-GDP | Low | >100% | Abu Dhabi |
| External Financial Support | Not required | GCC support packages | Abu Dhabi |
Financial Services
| Indicator | Abu Dhabi | Bahrain | Advantage |
|---|
| Financial Centre Growth Rate | ADGM: explosive (1,800+ entities) | Mature but slower | Abu Dhabi |
| Regulatory Maturity | Developing (est. 2013) | Mature (CBB since 2006) | Bahrain |
| Islamic Finance Depth | Growing | Established (AAOIFI HQ) | Bahrain |
| Fintech Sandbox First-Mover | RegLab (2018) | CBB Sandbox (2017, first in GCC) | Bahrain |
| Banking Scale (FAB vs NBB) | $300B+ assets | ~$10B assets | Abu Dhabi |
| Stock Exchange Market Cap | $700B+ | ~$25B | Abu Dhabi |
Diversification & Sectors
| Indicator | Abu Dhabi | Bahrain | Advantage |
|---|
| Sector Breadth | 12+ target sectors with investment | Finance, aluminium, limited others | Abu Dhabi |
| Manufacturing Anchor | Borouge (petrochemicals) | Alba (aluminium) | Draw (both world-scale) |
| Tourism Investment | $27B+ (Louvre, Guggenheim, Yas) | Heritage and accessibility | Abu Dhabi |
| Real Estate Affordability | Premium pricing | Lower entry, higher yields | Bahrain |
| Foreign Ownership (property) | Designated zones | 100% in most areas | Bahrain |
Human Capital & Innovation
| Indicator | Abu Dhabi | Bahrain | Advantage |
|---|
| Expatriate Dependency | ~81% | ~55% | Bahrain (lower dependency) |
| Nationalisation Programme Funding | Substantial (NAFIS, subsidies) | Constrained (Tamkeen) | Abu Dhabi |
| AI/Tech Institution | MBZUAI, Hub71, G42 | FinTech Bay, AWS region | Abu Dhabi |
| Regulatory Innovation Speed | Fast | Faster (first-mover on multiple fronts) | Bahrain |
Institutions
| Indicator | Abu Dhabi | Bahrain | Advantage |
|---|
| Sovereign Wealth Fund | ADIA ($1T+) | Mumtalakat (~$18B) | Abu Dhabi |
| Development Vehicle | Mubadala ($300B+) | Tamkeen (labour fund) | Abu Dhabi |
| Flag Carrier | Etihad (~100 aircraft) | Gulf Air (~35 aircraft) | Abu Dhabi |
| Port Infrastructure | Khalifa Port + KIZAD | Khalifa bin Salman Port | Abu Dhabi |
Summary Analysis
Abu Dhabi wins on 24 of 30+ metrics. The scale advantage is overwhelming across GDP, sovereign wealth, energy, fiscal health, banking, capital markets, tourism investment, and institutional depth. Abu Dhabi’s structural position is stronger in virtually every quantitative dimension.
Bahrain wins on 6 metrics — and these victories matter. Bahrain leads on regulatory maturity and innovation speed, Islamic finance depth, fintech first-mover status, real estate affordability, foreign ownership openness, and lower expatriate dependency. These are qualitative advantages: the agility and accessibility that a smaller, more nimble economy can offer.
The pattern is clear. Abu Dhabi wins on every measure of scale and capital. Bahrain wins on every measure of accessibility and regulatory quality. For investors, the choice depends on what matters more: the depth of the market or the ease of entry. For the visions themselves, the question is whether Bahrain’s qualitative advantages can substitute for Abu Dhabi’s quantitative dominance.
The data suggests they cannot — at least not fully. Scale creates compounding advantages that agility alone cannot offset. But Bahrain’s advantages are real, defensible, and valuable to a specific class of investor, institution, and enterprise. Both economies will reach 2030. They will arrive in fundamentally different positions — but both will have delivered value within their respective constraints.