OPEC+ is an informal alliance between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and a group of non-OPEC oil-producing nations, most notably Russia. The group coordinates production levels to influence global oil supply and stabilise prices. The UAE, through ADNOC and Abu Dhabi’s production capacity, is a key participant in the arrangement.
Formation
The OPEC+ framework was established in late 2016 when OPEC members agreed with 10 non-OPEC producers to cut oil output collectively in response to a sustained period of low oil prices. This was the first coordinated production agreement between OPEC and non-OPEC nations, extending the cartel’s influence over a larger share of global supply.
Mechanism
OPEC+ operates through voluntary production quotas assigned to each participating country. These quotas are set relative to a baseline production level and adjusted periodically based on market conditions, demand forecasts, and geopolitical factors. Compliance is monitored through a Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), though enforcement relies on voluntary adherence rather than binding legal obligations.
UAE Participation
The UAE has been an active participant in OPEC+ but has also been a source of tension within the group. The UAE — specifically Abu Dhabi through ADNOC — has invested heavily in expanding production capacity to over 4 million barrels per day, with a target of 5 million. The UAE has argued for higher baseline production quotas to reflect this expanded capacity, creating friction with Saudi Arabia and other members who prefer tighter quotas to support prices.
Impact on Abu Dhabi
OPEC+ production agreements directly affect Abu Dhabi’s hydrocarbon revenue, which remains the primary source of government income and sovereign wealth fund accumulation. Production cuts reduce short-term revenue but support prices. Production increases generate volume revenue but risk depressing prices. Abu Dhabi’s fiscal planning under the Economic Vision 2030 must account for OPEC+ dynamics.
Impact on Bahrain
Bahrain is not a significant OPEC member, but OPEC+ decisions affect Bahrain indirectly through oil price movements. Bahrain’s fiscal position is sensitive to oil prices given its budget dependence on hydrocarbon revenue and its shared revenue from the Abu Saafa offshore field.
Relevance to Vision 2030
OPEC+ is the primary external variable affecting the revenue assumptions underpinning both Abu Dhabi and Bahrain Economic Visions 2030. Both visions were designed in part to reduce fiscal vulnerability to oil price volatility — the very volatility that OPEC+ attempts to manage through production coordination.