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geopolitics
Bahrain's Fiscal Vulnerability: The Geopolitical Dimension
Analysis of Bahrain's fiscal vulnerability — debt-to-GDP exceeding 120%, dependence on the GCC $10 billion support package, Saudi Arabia as fiscal backstop, IMF pressure, political implications of austerity, comparison with Oman's pre-2020 trajectory, and credit rating outlook.
geopolitics
What If: Three Scenarios That Would Transform Abu Dhabi and Bahrain
Scenario analysis for Abu Dhabi and Bahrain: sustained oil below $50, Iran military escalation closing the Strait of Hormuz, and a Saudi Arabia policy shift withdrawing regional support. Probability assessments, economic impact, and investment implications for each scenario.